The most bitter fighting was
over the municipalities in which no group had been in the majority according to the 1991 census, such as Mostar,
Bugojno, Zepce and Fojnica. Most such municipalities were by the end of the
fighting either like Mostar territorially divided between Croats and Muslims
(known as Bosniaks from 1994) or under the control of the group that had made
up the largest percentage of its population. The
exceptions were two municipalities that prior to the war had a Muslim plurality
but fell under Croat control, Zepce and Stolac, and another, Vares, which previously
had a Croat plurality but was captured by the Bosnian Army (ARBiH) in October
1993.
In 1995, the Bosnian Croat
Army (HVO) captured Jajce, another municipality that prior to the war had a
Muslim plurality, from the Serbs,so at the end of the Bosnian war, the Croats
controlled three municipalities where Bosniaks had previously been the largest
group, while the Bosniaks controlled one where Croats had been most numerous.
Jajce became part of the
Central Bosnian canton, one of the two “mixed” cantons that had been
established by the Washington Agreement of 1994 that ended the Muslim-Croat
war, while Stolac became part of the other “mixed” canton, Herzegovina-Neretva.
Although “mixed”, it was quite clear when these cantons were
established that the Bosniaks would be stronger in the Central Bosnia canton,
while Croats would be the predominant group in Herzegovina-Neretva. Many
Bosniaks returned to Jajce, often in the face of opposition from local Croats,
and the municipality in 2004 elected a Bosniak mayor, but Stolac remains under
firm Croat control.
Jajce is not the only
municipality in the Central Bosnia Canton to move from Croat to Bosniak
control. In the 2008 local elections, mayoral candidates from the main Bosniak political
party, the SDA, won in Novi Travnik and Busovaca, which previously had Croat
mayors. This is interesting because prior to the war they both had – albeit
marginal – Croat pluralities. Novi Travnik and Busovaca may come to be seen as
the second and third previously Croat-plurality municipalities to “fall” to the
Bosniaks, 14 years after Vares. The Croat “loss” of these
three municipalities means that the Bosniaks have a 3-2 advantage in terms of
control of municipalities where the other group was more populous in 1991. Elsewhere
in the central Bosnia canton, Novi Travnik and Busovaca could even eventually
be joined by Vitez, the previously Croat-plurality municipality that connects
them and possibly even Kiseljak which was 52% Croat and 41% Muslim according to
the 1991 census, so would be the first municipality in which one group had been
in the majority to come under the control of the other group.
Zepce, which is in the
Bosniak-dominated Zenica-Doboj canton, still has a Croat mayor, but this is
something of an anomaly, because its borders were altered in 2001 to take in
mainly Croat areas of the neighbouring municipalities of Zavidovici and Maglaj.
Nevertheless the border alterations may
not be enough to secure Croat predominance there permanently.
The SDA is highly unlikely to take
control of Zepce, Vitez and Kiseljak in the local elections next month and
Dobretici in the central Bosnia canton and Usora in Zenica-Doboj, two tiny
Croat municipalities that were created after the Dayton accords, will elect
Croat mayors as will Kresevo in the Central Bosnia canton. But the election results
are likely to show a gradual consolidation of Bosniak predominance in these
cantons.
In the Hercegovina-Neretva
Canton, meanwhile, Stolac is likely to remain under firm Croat control despite
the previous Muslim plurality and substantial Bosniak returns to that
municipality. Interestingly, and perhaps in recognition of which way the wind is
blowing, the SDA will not field a mayoral candidate there, or in Capljina,
another municipality in the canton that before the war had a large Croat
population.
The immediate fallout of the Muslim-Croat war
was a rigid but very untidy division between the two populations,
with areas controlled by each group spattered across territory dominated by
other group. Conversely, Croats and Bosniaks are now much more intermingled,
but it seems that a neat division corresponding to the Croat- and Bosniak-dominated cantons, including the "mixed" cantons, is emerging. Next month’s local elections could show this trend
continuing.
